Saraki, Amaechi and El Rufai. What does these three Political Musketeers has in common? A common foe; Cardinal Richelieu in the name of Tinubu.

But it seems Tinubu is winning the Musketeers now or could there be a comeback?

Naija Politics has always been a theater of the absurd, but nothing captures its unpredictable nature quite like the rise and fall of Nasir El-Rufai. One moment you're the man of the moment, the next moment you're a forgotten footnote. And right now, El-Rufai is looking more and more like a forgotten footnote.

It all looked so promising when Tinubu was announced the winner of the presidential election. El-Rufai was one of the APC's biggest campaigners. He had worked tirelessly, strategized relentlessly, and positioned himself perfectly for a juicy reward in Tinubu's government.

The man was literally dancing to "Buga" by Kizz Daniel at APC victory celebrations. You could see the joy on his face. You could sense his anticipation. Minister of Power? Attorney General? Chief of Staff? The speculation was rife about which plum position El-Rufai would occupy in the new administration.

And then came the bombshell that changed everything.

The Senate denied clearing him for a ministerial position.

Just like that, El-Rufai's dreams came crashing down. The lawmakers who were supposed to rubber-stamp his appointment instead threw his nomination out. The reasons given were vague—security reports, his controversial tenure as Kaduna governor, his divisive politics. But the message was clear: El-Rufai was not welcome in Tinubu's cabinet.

It was a humiliation of epic proportions. Here was a man who had served as FCT minister under Obasanjo, who had governed Kaduna for eight years, who had been one of APC's biggest strategists, being rejected by the Senate like a common criminal.

But if the Senate rejection was bad, what his successor, Governor Uba Sani, did next was absolutely devastating.

Uba Sani publicly denied El-Rufai any godfather status in Kaduna State. When asked about his political mentors, Sani boldly declared that his mentors are Gani Fawehinmi and President Tinubu. Notice what he did there? He mentioned a dead activist and the sitting President, but completely erased El-Rufai from his political history.

This was the ultimate betrayal. El-Rufai had literally hand-picked Uba Sani and installed him as governor. And now the same Uba Sani was denying him, Peter-style. "I don't know that man," Sani was essentially saying.

The disrespect was unreal. And it sent a clear message: El-Rufai had no political home anymore. Not in Tinubu's government, not even in his own Kaduna State.

That's when the real drama began.

El-Rufai went to meet the late President Buhari—yes, he went to Daura to visit the man who had just left office—and then made the shocking announcement that he was decamping from APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

He claimed he had sought and received Buhari's blessing for the move. Whether Buhari actually blessed it or El-Rufai was just using the former President's name for legitimacy, we'll never know. But the defection was real, and it was messy.

Naija Politics watchers were stunned. El-Rufai, one of APC's founding fathers, was leaving the party? The same man who had worked so hard to build APC was now abandoning it? The irony was not lost on anyone.

His stay within SDP was marred with controversy from day one. The party stalwarts who had been there long before El-Rufai arrived were not happy with this new high-profile entrant. They accused him of trying to hijack the party, of attempting to impose himself as the leader, of using his money and influence to take over their structures.

"El-Rufai wants to buy SDP and turn it into his personal property," party members complained. "He thinks because he was a governor he can just walk in and take over everything."

The internal battles were intense. The accusations flew back and forth. And it became clear very quickly that SDP was not going to be the political haven El-Rufai hoped it would be.

So what did he do? He decamped again. This time to ADC.

Yes, the same ADC where Atiku, his former political ally turned enemy turned potential ally again, had pitched his tent. El-Rufai was clearly trying to mend his broken relationship with the Waziri of Adamawa, probably calculating that joining forces with Atiku was his best shot at remaining politically relevant.

And that's when the boasting started.

El-Rufai began making bold predictions. He claimed he had done the calculations and that Tinubu wouldn't even come close to being in the top two or three during the 2027 elections. He started attacking the presidency with renewed vigor, criticizing every policy, condemning every decision, predicting doom and gloom for the administration.

"This government has failed Nigerians," El-Rufai would say. "The economy is in ruins. Insecurity is worse than ever. Tinubu's government is a disaster." The attacks were relentless and personal.

For a while, Naija Politics observers wondered if El-Rufai was positioning himself for a comeback.

Maybe he was planning to be Atiku's running mate?

Maybe he was eyeing a major role in the opposition coalition? Maybe he was just trying to remain relevant by being the loudest critic of the government that rejected him?

But then something strange happened. El-Rufai went silent. Completely silent.

The attacks stopped. The boasting disappeared. The predictions of Tinubu's failure ceased. The man who had been everywhere—on social media, in the news, at political events—suddenly vanished into thin air.

Where is El-Rufai?

That's the question everyone in Naija Politics is asking now.

Has he joined the league of Bukola Saraki and Rotimi Amaechi, former political heavyweights who have been rendered politically worthless and reduced to paperweights by Tinubu's strategic political dismantling?

Saraki, the former Senate President who fought Tinubu and lost, is now a political ghost. Nobody talks about him anymore. His political relevance has evaporated.

Amaechi, the former Rivers governor and Transportation minister who helped build APC but was denied the presidential ticket, has also faded into irrelevance. Despite his years of service, despite his loyalty, he's been cast aside and forgotten.

Is El-Rufai heading down the same path? Has Tinubu's political machinery successfully neutralized another potential threat?

And what about Kaduna State? Has there been "Oto'ge" (enough is enough) in Kaduna as the current governor, Uba Sani, continues to thrive and maintain excellent relations with Tinubu's government?

Uba Sani is doing everything right from Tinubu's perspective. He's loyal, he's cooperative, he's not causing trouble, and he's completely independent of El-Rufai's influence. The president couldn't ask for a better governor in Kaduna.

Meanwhile, El-Rufai, the man who governed that state for eight years, who transformed Kaduna (for better or worse depending on who you ask), who was once one of Nigeria's most influential politicians, has simply disappeared.

No more press conferences. No more political predictions. No more attacks on Tinubu. No more boasting about 2027 calculations. Just silence. Deafening silence.

Some say he's regrouping, planning his next move quietly. Others say he's been warned to stay quiet or face consequences. A few believe he's realized that his political career is over and has accepted his fate gracefully.

Whatever the truth is, one thing is certain: El-Rufai's disappearance from Naija Politics is complete and total. The man who was once a kingmaker has become politically invisible. The man who danced to "Buga" in anticipation of power is now dancing to nothing in the darkness of political irrelevance.

Has Tinubu successfully destroyed another political rival? Is El-Rufai's career truly over, or is he just biding his time for a dramatic comeback? And what does his silence mean for the opposition coalition he supposedly joined?

Only time will tell. But for now, El-Rufai serves as yet another cautionary tale in Naija Politics: today's political titan can become tomorrow's political ghost. One moment you're indispensable, the next moment you're forgotten. One moment you're making bold predictions, the next moment nobody even remembers your name.

Where is El-Rufai? Maybe the better question is: does it even matter anymore?