In Naija politics, the most dangerous thing that can happen to a democracy is not a bad government.

It is the absence of any real opposition to that government.

And this week, the Nigerian opposition did not just take a hit. It took a bullet to the chest, fell to the ground, and began writing its own obituary.

Two stories. Happening at the same time. Both devastating. Both pointing in the same terrible direction.

The opposition in Nigeria is not just struggling. It is dying.

PDP: The Last Man Standing is Packing His Bags

Let's start with the numbers, because numbers do not lie.

In 2015, PDP controlled 21 governors. Twenty-one. More than half the country.

Today, as of this Sunday March 16, 2026, PDP controls exactly two governors in the entire Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Two.

Seyi Makinde in Oyo. And Bala Mohammed in Bauchi.

That is all that is left of a party that ruled this country for sixteen years. Two men. Two states. Two last fingers clutching a cliff edge.

And now, one of those two fingers is letting go.

THISDAY's investigation has revealed that Bala Mohammed, Governor of Bauchi State and Chairman of the PDP Governors' Forum, has concluded plans to join the ruling APC this week, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Read that again slowly.

The Chairman of the PDP Governors' Forum.

The man whose job it was to lead and protect PDP's remaining governors. The man Makinde trusted to fight alongside him. The man who was supposed to be the last line of defence against total PDP collapse.

That man is negotiating his surrender price.

Reports confirm that the APC has agreed to a 60/40 power-sharing arrangement in Bauchi State and offered Mohammed the party's senatorial ticket for future elections. However, a key sticking point remains: Mohammed's desire to influence the nomination of his successor as governor.

So this is what it has come to. A man who governed Bauchi for four years, who fought APC tooth and nail from the opposition trenches, who called himself a defender of democracy, is now begging Tinubu for a senatorial ticket and the right to choose his own successor.

Not principles. Not ideology. Not Nigeria. A Senate seat.

Sources close to Seyi Makinde reportedly expressed shock at the development, questioning how the chairman of the PDP Governors' Forum could consider leaving the party at a time when efforts were being made to reposition it.

Makinde is shocked.

He should not be. Because Naija politics has always told us this truth, loud and clear.

When a politician's Commissioner for Finance is facing terrorism charges and a N4.6 billion money laundering case, that politician stops thinking about party ideology very quickly. Insiders suggested that Mohammed's planned defection may be linked to the legal troubles of his Commissioner for Finance, Yakubu Adamu, who is facing terrorism and money laundering charges involving about N4.6 billion. The commissioner was said to have threatened to implicate the governor if he was not released from custody.

There it is.

This is not a defection of conviction. This is a defection of self-preservation. A man running from a fire, not walking towards a light.

And Tinubu knows it. Which is why the terms being offered to Bala Mohammed are deliberately humiliating. Tinubu allegedly told Mohammed that it would be difficult to hand him the structure of the party as they did to other governors. The president allegedly said the best he could do was hand him his ticket back to the Senate, but that he won't be allowed to nominate his successor. "Unlike the privileges extended to the early defectors, Bala Mohammed can't get the full APC structure in Bauchi."

The early defectors got full packages. Bala Mohammed is getting leftovers.

You come late to surrender, you get treated like a late arrival. That is Naija politics. Timing is everything.

If the defection proceeds as planned, it will boost the APC's tally of sitting governors to 32, leaving the PDP with just one: Oyo State's Seyi Makinde.

Thirty-two out of thirty-six.

APC will control thirty-two governors. And the entire Nigerian opposition, across every party that is not APC, will share four governors between them.

This is what the collapse of democracy looks like. Not a coup. Not soldiers. Just defections, one by one, until the room is empty.

ADC: A Party That Cannot Even Agree on Its Own Birthday

Now, while PDP was being bled dry, the other opposition vehicle that was supposed to challenge Tinubu in 2027 decided to hold a civil war.

ADC. The African Democratic Congress. The party that El-Rufai joined. The party that Peter Obi registered with. The party that was supposed to be the great hope of the opposition coalition.

That party woke up this weekend with two different factions issuing two different dates for their national convention.

The ADC fixed April 14, 2026 for its National Convention, with ward congresses beginning April 7, followed by local government and state congresses ahead of the 2027 general elections.

April 14. Official. Signed. Published.

But wait.

A faction of the ADC scheduled April 3 to 5 for its own national convention, with ward congresses on March 19, LGA congresses on March 24, and state congresses on March 28. The group said the decision was taken to promote unity, inclusivity, and internal cohesion.

Two factions. Two dates. Two national conventions. One party.

The faction holding April 3 convention says the April 14 date is illegitimate. The April 14 group says the April 3 faction is illegitimate. Both groups are calling themselves the real ADC. Both groups are issuing statements from Abuja. Both groups are claiming the authentic party leadership.

The ADC faction also described the ongoing electronic membership mobilisation, registration, and revalidation exercise being conducted by the coalition linked to the party as illegitimate.

They cannot agree on who is a member. They cannot agree on who leads. They cannot agree on when to meet.

And these are the people who want to defeat Tinubu in 2027.

This is Naija politics. A party too busy fighting itself to fight the government.

The tragedy is that ADC was supposed to be different. El-Rufai brought his formidable political brains and Northern credibility. Nine senators defected to the party. Peter Obi came in with his Obidient movement energy. For a moment, it looked like something real was forming.

But the same disease that killed PDP found ADC before it could grow. The disease of personal ambition dressed in party colours. The disease of godfathers fighting over who controls the structure before the structure can even stand.

You cannot build a house when the architects are fighting over who draws the blueprint.

Is This The End of Opposition in Nigeria?

The honest answer is: it depends on what you mean by opposition.

If you mean a credible, organised, funded, unified force capable of defeating Tinubu at the polls in 2027, then yes. As things stand today, that opposition does not exist in Nigeria.

What exists is Seyi Makinde. One man. In Oyo State. Holding what is left of PDP together through sheer political will and personal resources. A man who himself is facing a fierce battle to keep Oyo from being swallowed by APC in 2027.

What exists is ADC, torn between two factions, fighting over convention dates while Tinubu is already spending money, deploying ministers, and mapping every ward in every state.

What exists is Peter Obi, whose Obidient movement was a social phenomenon in 2023 but whose Labour Party lost its momentum after missing Abuja, and who is now trying to start again in ADC, a party that one of its own factions says does not recognise his membership.

What exists is Atiku Abubakar, who has run for president more times than most Nigerians have voted, whose own son joined APC to support Tinubu, and whose credibility among young voters is somewhere between doubt and disinterest.

None of these, individually, is enough. And they have not found a way to become enough together.

Here is the cold truth about Naija politics and 2027.

Tinubu does not need to campaign brilliantly. He does not need to fix fuel. He does not need to solve insecurity. He does not even need to turn the lights back on.

He just needs the opposition to remain exactly as it is today.

Fractured. Defecting. Fighting over convention dates. Leaderless. Underfunded. And incapable of agreeing on anything except the fact that they hate each other almost as much as they oppose him.

If that continues until 2027, Tinubu wins by default.

Not by merit. By default.

And a democracy where the incumbent wins by default is not a democracy. It is a one-party state wearing a multiparty costume.

The question now is not whether the opposition can win. The question is whether the opposition can survive long enough to even show up.

What do you think? Is the Nigerian opposition completely finished, or is there still a way to build a genuine force that can challenge Tinubu in 2027? And with Bala Mohammed's defection, is Seyi Makinde now completely alone in this fight? Drop your thoughts in the comments section. This Naija politics collapse is happening in real time and the whole country is watching!