If you thought the Rivers State political battle was intense, welcome to Lagos, where the upcoming 2027 governorship race is shaping up to be the mother of all political wars. In the high-stakes arena of naija-politics, Lagos is not just another state. It is THE state. Africa's commercial capital. The economic powerhouse with a GDP larger than most West African countries combined. And controlling it means controlling the heartbeat of Nigerian commerce and politics.

The question is no longer whether there will be a contest. The question is: which of the multiple titans circling Alausa will survive the gladiatorial combat to emerge victorious?

The Confirmed Contenders

The field is absolutely crowded with political heavyweights, each bringing formidable credentials to the table:

Femi Gbajabiamila - Chief of Staff to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Supporters are banking on his close ties to the President and long-standing political experience, which they believe make him a strong contender. From Tinubu's inner sanctum, Femi Gbajabiamila remains the frontrunner, the "crown prince" of Lagos in waiting.

Dr. Hakeem Muri-Okunola (HMO) - The immediate past Head of Service in Lagos State who has worked as a private secretary to Bola Tinubu, both as governor and president. Although zoning doesn't favour him, his connection to Tinubu could be an advantage.

Dr. Maruf Tunji Alausa - The Minister of Education is reportedly set to resign to pursue the Lagos governorship. Many locals view him as a competent and loyal figure capable of restoring Epe's influence in Lagos politics. And just today, reports confirm he's preparing to make his move official.

Akinwunmi Ambode - Former Governor Ambode, a Christian, is favoured to return to govern the state for four years to make up for the 16 years Tinubu and former Governor Babajide Fashola spent consecutively as Muslim governors in Lagos. The GAC members are reportedly working to delay Seyi Tinubu's governorship bid, moving it to 2031, citing a need for party continuity and strategic planning, potentially paving way for Ambode's return.

Mudashiru Obasa - The longest-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. During the 2025 budget presentation, Obasa addressed speculation about his governorship ambitions, emphasizing his commitment to strengthening the APC while not ruling out the possibility of running.

Seyi Tinubu - The President's son, with federal heft and dynastic resonance, though facing resistance from the GAC and concerns about dynasty politics.

What Does This Mean For All Of Them?

It means operating within the complex framework of naija-politics where Lagos has always been decided by one factor above all others: Tinubu's endorsement. Whoever gets the president's nod, as the strongman of Lagos politics, automatically emerges as the party's consensus candidate and the likeliest winner of the contest.

But this time, even Tinubu's choice won't be easy because multiple factors are pulling in different directions:

The Religious Factor: Since Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, a Christian, succeeded Akinwunmi Ambode, it may be difficult for another Christian to be considered for the governorship job in the state. This favors Muslim candidates like Gbajabiamila, HMO, and Tunji Alausa, but potentially works against Ambode.

The Zoning Factor: Stakeholders from Epe believe the region has been marginalized since Ambode's ouster. "Ambode was not allowed to complete his second term, unlike others before him. It's time to correct that injustice," said Olugbede Adekalu, a strong APC member. This gives Tunji Alausa and Ambode (both from Epe) a strong moral argument.

The Dynasty Factor: "You know Nigeria is a very funny country, they may not stand the father as a president and his son as a governor. Right now, the consensus is that Ambode or Alausa has a better chance of carrying the party in 2027". This significantly weakens Seyi Tinubu's chances despite his father's position.

Analyzing Who Has The Most Chance To Win The Ticket

Based on the available evidence and political calculations, here's my ranking:

1. Femi Gbajabiamila (40% chance)

Strengths: Direct access to Tinubu as Chief of Staff. Former Speaker with legislative experience. Muslim, which satisfies religious balance. From Surulere, which is politically strategic. Has both federal and state political experience.

Weaknesses: Never served in Lagos State government directly. May be seen as an outsider focused on federal politics. His closeness to Tinubu could actually work against him if there's a desire for someone who appears more independent.

2. Dr. Tunji Alausa (30% chance)

Strengths: From Epe, which has a legitimate grievance about being shortchanged. Muslim. Federal minister with executive experience. Young enough to represent generational change. Has Tinubu's trust (appointed twice as minister).

Weaknesses: Less known politically compared to others. Never held elective office. Might be seen as too technocratic rather than political.

3. Akinwunmi Ambode (20% chance)

Strengths: Has actually governed Lagos before with a good track record. From Epe, satisfying zoning demands. Christian, which balances 16 years of Muslim governors. Experienced administrator. Strong support from GAC members who want to correct the "injustice" of his ouster.

Weaknesses: His relationship with Tinubu is still complicated. Christian identity works against him given the Muslim desire for "their turn." Would Tinubu really allow someone he once ousted to return? The emotional baggage is heavy.

4. Hakeem Muri-Okunola (5% chance)

Strengths: Extremely close to Tinubu personally. Understands Lagos governance intimately. Muslim. Loyal and tested.

Weaknesses: Zoning completely works against him. No elective political experience. Would be seen as pure imposition rather than earned position.

5. Mudashiru Obasa (4% chance)

Strengths: Longest-serving Speaker with deep legislative experience. Understands Lagos politics intimately. Has his own political base.

Weaknesses: Recent impeachment drama (though reinstated) damaged his image. His conspicuous absence from APC events suggests he might not have Tinubu's full blessing. May have burned bridges with his perceived disloyalty.

6. Seyi Tinubu (1% chance)

Strengths: The President's son. Would guarantee absolute loyalty.

Weaknesses: Everything else. The GAC is working to defer his ambition to 2031. Dynasty concerns are real. Lack of experience. Public perception would be disastrous for both father and son. Even Tinubu's strategists know this is politically suicidal in 2027.

The Wildcard Factor

The real question in the ever-unpredictable world of naija-politics is whether Tinubu will even get to make this decision alone. The Governance Advisory Council (GAC), a powerful 30-member political body established by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during his tenure as Lagos State governor in 1999, led by Prince Tajudeen Olusi has shown it's willing to push back against what it sees as wrong choices.

The GAC blocked Seyi Tinubu's ambitions by deferring them to 2031. Can they also influence whether it's Gbajabiamila, Tunji Alausa, or Ambode? Absolutely yes.

My Prediction

Based on all available evidence, Femi Gbajabiamila is the most likely candidate to emerge, with Tunji Alausa as a strong second option if Tinubu decides to satisfy Epe's demands. Ambode remains an outside possibility if Tinubu feels sentimental about correcting past mistakes.

But here's the wildcard: In 2007, Babatunde Fashola emerged from relative obscurity while more voluble aspirants receded. In 2015, Akinwunmi Ambode, a technocrat without a flamboyant campaign, secured the nod. Tinubu has a history of springing surprises, picking candidates nobody saw coming.

So while Gbajabiamila looks like the crown prince, don't be shocked if Tinubu pulls a rabbit out of his political hat and gives it to Tunji Alausa or even resurrects Ambode's political career in a stunning act of political redemption.

What's certain is that the clash of titans about to besiege Lagos APC will be one of the most watched political battles in Nigerian history. And whoever emerges will have survived a contest that tested every political skill imaginable.

What do you think? Who should get the Lagos APC ticket in 2027? Is Gbajabiamila the inevitable choice, or will Tinubu spring another surprise? Drop your thoughts in the comments section!