In the messy, chaotic world of naija-politics, few states are experiencing a crisis quite as absurd as Osun State. Here, local government activities have been rendered completely useless, caught in a political quagmire where two major parties APC and PDP are both laying claim to chairmanship seats across all 30 local government areas.

Yes, you read that correctly. Both parties claim to control the same local government seats. It's like watching two people fight over a chair while the house burns down around them.

The situation is so ridiculous that a Federal High Court nullified the local government elections conducted by the APC-led administration in Osun State in 2022 and consequently sacked all APC chairmen and councillors. That judgment was subsequently affirmed by the Court of Appeal in a judgment delivered by Justices Oyebisi Folayemi Omoleye, Peter Obiorah and Hadiza Rabiu Shagari on June 13, 2025.

So legally, the APC chairmen were sacked. Case closed, right? Wrong. Because on February 10, 2025, a Court of Appeal judgment nullified an earlier decision that had removed APC elected chairmen and councillors across the state, which APC interpreted as reinstatement.

Now you have dueling court judgments, dueling sets of local government officials, and complete chaos. The Network of Civil Society Groups called on chairmen currently running council areas to vacate office immediately, alleging that their tenure ended on October 26, 2025.

But the APC chairmen refuse to leave, claiming they were reinstated by the Court of Appeal. Meanwhile, the PDP swept all 30 local government areas in elections conducted on February 22, 2025 , producing their own set of chairmen and councillors.

So now Osun has two complete sets of local government officials, APC claiming legitimacy based on one court judgment, PDP claiming legitimacy based on another court judgment and fresh elections. It's a constitutional nightmare that has rendered local government administration completely dysfunctional.

But wait,it gets worse. Much worse.

The Federal Government has stopped paying local government allocations to Osun State since early 2025. Governor Ademola Adeleke cried out over the continuous withholding of over ₦130 billion in statutory allocations due to local governments in the state.

One hundred and thirty billion naira! That's the amount being withheld from Osun's local governments while this political madness plays out.

The Osun State Government is demanding the immediate release of local government funds for February, March, and April 2025, which it claims have been unlawfully withheld by the Federal Government. And according to state officials, the withholding of Local Government allocations by the Federal Government has continued since March 2025.

Think about what this means. Primary school teachers aren't being paid. Healthcare workers at 332 primary health centers aren't being paid. Local government workers aren't being paid. Pensioners aren't being paid. All because of a political dispute about who controls the local governments.

Governor Adeleke warned that the withdrawal was severely impacting grassroots governance negatively and causing hardship for workers and residents.

But here's where the brutal realities of naija-politics become crystal clear: The Federal Government is weaponizing local government funds to fight a proxy war in Osun.

Former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, who is now the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy in Tinubu's government, is widely believed to be pulling the strings. The PDP accused Oyetola of threatening to rig the 2026 governorship election using federal might, claiming he told APC stakeholders "I have secured the cooperation of the police and INEC to ensure that APC wins the Osun 2026 Gubernatorial Election".

Whether Oyetola actually said that is disputed, APC denies it, but the pattern is clear: the federal government is using its control over local government allocations as a weapon to destabilize the PDP-led state government ahead of the August 2026 gubernatorial election.

And the strategy might be working. An intelligence report revealed that the present strategy and plan by Oyetola is to make the state ungovernable for Governor Adeleke so that they can hide under the guise of a crisis in the state to declare a state of emergency in Osun State.

That's the playbook: create chaos, withhold funds, make governance impossible, then declare a state of emergency and install a federal administrator. It's a coup by another name, dressed up in legal language.

The human cost is staggering. While politicians fight over who sits in which office, ordinary Osun residents suffer. Teachers haven't been paid. Pensioners are starving. Healthcare workers are leaving. Infrastructure projects are stalled.

And in the volatile arena of naija-politics, what makes this even more outrageous is that while Osun's allocations are withheld, other states continue to receive theirs without issue. The Coalition of Concerned Nigerian Citizens warned that if the federal government fails to act, they will be forced to adopt more drastic measures, including confrontation.

So what will happen in the coming gubernatorial election in August 2026?

Will incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke retain his seat despite all these federal-level obstacles? Or will he lose to the APC candidate backed by federal might and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy?

The honest answer is: it depends on how far the federal government is willing to go.

If Oyetola and the APC have indeed secured the "cooperation of the police and INEC" as alleged, then Adeleke is fighting an uphill battle. You can't defeat an opponent who controls the referee, the scoreboard, and the security at the stadium.

But Adeleke has one advantage: grassroots popularity. The PDP swept all 30 local government areas in the February 2025 elections, which suggests genuine support on the ground. If the election is even remotely free and fair, Adeleke should win.

The question is: will the election be free and fair?

Given the federal interference we've already seen withholding allocations, alleged coordination with police and INEC, the weaponization of the judiciary there's little reason to be optimistic about a level playing field.

APC is dead in Osun today; that is why the party lost all national assembly seats and managed to win one house of assembly seat out of 26 members during the 2023 elections. They know they can't win fairly, so they're not trying to win fairly. They're trying to win by making governance impossible and then presenting themselves as the solution.

What we're witnessing in Osun State is not democracy. It's a hostile takeover using federal resources and power. It's a preview of what happens when incumbency at the federal level is weaponized against opposition states.

And the saddest part? The people of Osun teachers, nurses, pensioners, local government workers, ordinary citizens are the ones paying the price for this political chess game being played over their heads.

One hundred and thirty billion naira withheld. Thousands of workers unpaid. Local government administration paralyzed. Two sets of officials claiming the same seats. Court judgments contradicting each other. Federal might being deployed to destabilize a state government.

This is the state of naija-politics in 2026. This is what democracy looks like when it's been hijacked by political operatives more interested in power than in people.

Will Adeleke survive and win reelection despite all these obstacles? Or will Oyetola and the federal machinery succeed in their alleged plan to recapture Osun for APC?

The answer will tell us a lot about whether Nigeria is still a democracy or has become something else entirely, a place where federal power can simply override the will of state-level voters whenever it's politically convenient.

What do you think? Can Adeleke overcome federal interference to win reelection? Should the federal government be allowed to withhold state allocations as a political weapon? And what does this Osun crisis say about the state of Nigerian democracy? Drop your thoughts in the comments section!