Kperogi: I will not call Tinubu a tribalist, that's a word every African shouldn't use, he is an ethnic jingoist. Look at his economic appointments, everyone that matters there is a Yoruba person... I call it Lagos-centric Yorubacracy. Lagos is a cosmopolitan city and has always been cosmopolitan since the 1800s. Been the melting point of Nigeria so you expect people who grew up there to be sensitive to this but Tinubu who is not originally from the Tinubu family but grew up in Lagos and is being associated with that family, has been disappointingly narrow-minded and provincial about this, in a way that no one else has ever been in the history of Nigeria.

SO: Will it cost him re-election?

Kperogi: No, the opposition cannot defeat him. They are too fragmented and fighting internal crisis here and there. I wrote sometime ago: "Tinubu won't win, the opposition will lose" which simply is the loss of the opposition by default gives victory to Tinubu. The objective factors for his loss are there but the subjective factors which the opposition should have taken advantage does not exist. So, all the opposition appeal to the same slice of voters from 1999 until now but they are now splintered. Peter Obi, I don't know whether former President Goodluck Jonathan will still run, but even if he does, he appeals to the same kind of voters that Peter Obi appeals to. Atiku Abubakar appeals to the same voters these other people appeal to but they are now splintered. So, it's even a worse situation than 2023 so how do you expect to win.

SO: So, the only way anybody could have beaten Tinubu in 2027 is if all these forces will come together excepting there is a miracle.

Kperogi: Absolutely. Even if all the forces come together, that will still be difficult because Tinubu doesn't seem to want to leave power even if he loses, however, if the defeat is so decisive, is so phenomenal that even the blind could see, they could make an appeal to the International Community, they could appeal to the broader community and say, hey, this man doesn't want to leave but right now, he doesn't even need to do a lot. The incumbency factor that he has, and the capacity to persuade people to vote against their interests through financial inducement which is a thing in Nigeria and infact actually to be fair, it's a thing among all voters. Voters are not always rational so expecting that voters will always use rationality to vote is not guaranteed. So when you factor that in, I don't even see why any opposition person is campaigning, it's already a lost election.

SO: So everybody should go to sleep, Tinubu is re-elected in 2027, that's what you are saying.

Kperogi: From my perspective, but you know politicians are some of the most optimistic creatures on the surface of this Earth and their optimism is something of study.

Seun Okin's interview with Professor Kperogi

Source: Nairaland