Of course, President Bola Tinubu is in the shoes of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) as the current number-one citizen. But as an incumbent seeking re-election, he is not. Yet, given the manner he spoke while hosting Catholic bishops who came calling at the Aso Villa, one would think he is in the same vulnerable position Jonathan was ahead of the 2015 presidential election.

Sending a pugilistic message to politicians he would be squaring up against in next year’s polls, the President said, “I asked for this job. I’m in it. Those who will take it from me will try. They will try. All is fair in politics, and it’s equal opportunity…  I’m ready, but I won’t give them a red carpet. I won’t offer them the leash to tie me and rope me. No, we wrestle each other to the finishing point.”

When translated into street lingo, it would seem the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate is saying, "We kpai here!” Some may wonder if it was the right occasion for Tinubu to express a gung-ho disposition towards his second-term bid. We are talking about a meeting with the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN), led by its president, Most Rev. Matthew Ndagoso. He must have bared his mind in response to the Catholic bishops' observation that Nigeria was drifting towards a one-party state and that the shrinking political space has placed the country's democracy under threat. 

Meanwhile, let’s hope that the lord bishops also reminded their host that politics shouldn’t be a do-or-die affair and of the words of his predecessor, Jonathan: "my ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian." Speaking of GEJ, the auguries don’t yet suggest that Tinubu’s 2027 aspiration is heading for the rocks like was the case in 2014. Lines have been falling in pleasant places for the President what with several opposition parties (minor ones though) adopting him as their presidential candidate. This is even as the main opposition parties have been majorly distracted by court cases that are trying to destabilise and literally pull the rugs off their feet as far as the 2027 polls go. 

This wasn’t the case heading into the 2015 election. The main opposition banded together with the highly critical and very voluble Lai Mohammed and the current President making life miserable for the then Aso Villa. Through what could pass for propaganda and scorched-earth politricks, Nigerians were made to see the Jonathan administration as clueless and corrupt. At least, none of the present-day parties have been able to pull off such an onslaught against the government of the day. 

Then, here’s the major reason why Tinubu cannot be said to be in Jonathan’s position as regards his re-election chances. Just before 2015, five serving governors from key states pulled out from the ruling People’s Democratic Party to join the APC. They were Rotimi Amaechi from Rivers State, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State and Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State. 

This was even as some other bigwigs stayed behind to play the fifth columnist role. Jonathan himself was reported as revealing that even his then party chairman, Alhaji Adamu Mu’azu, clandestinely worked against his re-election and sabotaged the PDP's success in the 2015 election. 

This is starkly different from the loyalty Tinubu has been enjoying across party lines. Politicians of all hues have been falling over heels to stand on his mandate. On April 25, opposition political leaders gathered at a summit in Ibadan, Oyo State, where they resolved to work and explore the possibility of presenting a single presidential candidate to challenge Tinubu. That plan hasn’t seen the light of day as the actors have since gone their separate ways.

Rather than shedding bigwigs, the President’s party has been the beneficiary of several governors jumping ship, so much so that the All Progressives Congress now controls about 31 out of the 36 states of the federation. Even the presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, in a recent press statement, observed that the enthusiasm around the ambition of Tinubu’s main challenger, Peter Obi, is ebbing. 

In the face of all of this, do you think that Tinubu’s combative approach to the 2027 election is necessary or he’s just being the astute politician who would not take anything for granted?