Few politicians in the rich and dramatic landscape of naija-politics have mastered the art of playing victim quite like Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai. Here is a man who has spent his entire political career crying wolf about presidents wanting to destroy him, claiming to be on hit lists, fleeing to exile, and then returning triumphantly when the coast was clear. And now, in 2026, he's playing the exact same record for the third time.

But let's start from the beginning, because El-Rufai's history of political blackmail is a masterclass in using fear, victimhood, and dramatic narratives to manipulate public opinion.

The Yar'Adua Chapter

After leaving office in 2007, El-Rufai became a target of political persecution under President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's administration. He was accused of corruption and abuse of power, leading to legal battles with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Facing pressure, he went into self-imposed exile, during which he studied at Harvard University and engaged in international consultancy.

El-Rufai framed his exile as political persecution. He became a vocal critic of the Yar'Adua administration from abroad, writing explosive pieces and giving damaging interviews to international media. In less than one year after the transition of power to President Yar'Adua, the EFCC under Farida Waziri commenced the process to extradite him from self-exile in a case of abuse of office.

But here's the interesting part: El-Rufai returned to Nigeria four days before Yar'Adua's demise in 2010. He didn't return because he was exonerated. He returned because his enemy was dying. That tells you everything about the nature of his "exile": it wasn't principled resistance. It was strategic self-preservation.

And the most chilling part? El-Rufai later boasted: "I have fought with two presidents. Umaru Yar'Adua ended in his grave, while President Goodluck Jonathan ended in Otuoke" . He actually took credit for the deaths and political downfall of his enemies. Not grief, not sympathy, just cold triumph over fallen foes.

The Jonathan Sniper List

After returning from exile and initially being friendly to Jonathan, El-Rufai turned viciously against him when he didn't get what he wanted. After Jonathan named Namadi Sambo as his Vice President, El-Rufai became very bitter, made plans to leave PDP, and began to undermine the Jonathan administration.

Then came the classic El-Rufai move: claim the president wants to kill him. El-Rufai alleged that he, along with General Buhari and several other prominent Nigerians, were on a hit list of people to be shot and killed by the Jonathan administration, which he made on January 5, 2014.

A sniper list. Jonathan had a sniper list, and El-Rufai was on it.

Jonathan's camp fired back, denying the allegation and pointing out that despite El-Rufai's numerous provocations and baseless claims, Jonathan had resisted the urge to order his arrest, taking what they described as a statesmanlike position to avoid heightening political tension.

But El-Rufai wasn't done with provocations. He also claimed that Jonathan founded and funded Boko Haram to the tune of N50 billion to give Islam a bad name. He further alleged that Jonathan had gone to the Republic of Chad to plan Boko Haram attacks with the late President Deby.

These weren't just political criticisms. These were dangerous, incendiary allegations that could have set the country ablaze. And El-Rufai made them with zero evidence, zero accountability, and zero consequences.

Jonathan's camp noted that El-Rufai had been exposed as a pathological liar in the book "Power, Politics and Death" by Segun Adeniyi, former spokesman to President Yar'Adua. Even his political patron Atiku Abubakar had described him as "a liar" and fetish person.

The Tinubu Chapter: Same Script, Different Cast

Now fast forward to 2026. El-Rufai has been denied a ministerial position by Tinubu, just as he was denied what he wanted by Yar'Adua and Jonathan. And predictably, he's playing the same script again.

He's now claiming that Tinubu might have him arrested. He's making noise about political threats. He's positioning himself as a victim of a vindictive president.

El-Rufai's critics have pointed out the profound hypocrisy: here's a man who described Tinubu's government as "the worst and most corrupt in Nigeria's history," while presenting himself as an outsider in a government he actively helped bring to power.

His former political associate turned foe, Senator Shehu Sani, described him as a serpent that could sow seeds of discord and cause disaffection.

Even his former boss, President Obasanjo, once wrote in his memoir "My Watch": "Nasir's penchant for reputation savaging is almost pathological. The worst is his inability to be loyal to anybody or any issue consistently for long, but only to Nasir El-Rufai".

Think about that. His own former boss, the man who gave him his biggest political breaks, publicly declared that El-Rufai is loyal to nobody but himself. Three presidents, three periods of alleged persecution, three cycles of victimhood. The pattern is impossible to ignore.

Is there something El-Rufai knows that makes all these presidents his enemy? Probably yes. El-Rufai is a man who collects secrets. His time as FCT minister, as BPE Director-General, as Kaduna Governor gave him access to deeply sensitive information about Nigeria's political class. He knows where many bodies are buried.

But rather than using this knowledge constructively, he weaponizes it. He uses the threat of exposure to create leverage. He manufactures victim narratives to win public sympathy. He claims persecution to position himself as a brave truth-teller when he's actually a calculating operator protecting his own interests.

And now, to crown it all, his own son Bello has publicly humiliated him in the most politically devastating way possible.

The lawmaker representing Kaduna North Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives, Bello El-Rufai, has expressed regret for criticising the administration of former President, Goodluck . And more devastatingly, Bello has openly said that while he loves his father, he respects Tinubu and stands with the Jagaban.

Father and son on opposite sides of the political divide. The man who raised you is your political opponent. The president your father is accusing of wanting to arrest him is the man your son publicly respects and pledges loyalty to.

This is perhaps the most telling indictment of El-Rufai's political blackmail strategy: when your own son doesn't believe your victimhood narrative enough to stand with you, maybe the narrative isn't as compelling as you think.

The pattern of naija-politics has seen many El-Rufais come and go: brilliant men who mistake intelligence for wisdom, who confuse sharp tongues for moral authority, who believe that the ability to expose others' weaknesses is the same as having strength yourself.

El-Rufai is genuinely intelligent. His policy ideas are often sophisticated. His understanding of governance is often sound. But his character is so deeply flawed, his political blackmail so transparent, his victimhood narratives so repetitive, that very few people take him seriously as a principled actor anymore.

He cried wolf with Yar'Adua. He cried wolf with Jonathan. He's crying wolf with Tinubu. And like the boy in the fable, each time he cries, fewer people listen.

Can El-Rufai ever stop the political blackmail and become a genuinely constructive voice in Nigerian politics? At 65 years old, with a track record spanning three presidential administrations of manufactured persecution, the answer appears to be no.

This is simply who El-Rufai is: a man who only knows how to fight, only knows how to claim victimhood, only knows how to use information as a weapon. A man who has been called a liar by his bosses, a serpent by his colleagues, a blackmailer by his victims, and now, most painfully, a man whose own son has chosen the president he accuses of persecution over him.

In the unforgiving, truth-revealing theater of naija-politics, El-Rufai's legacy is being written not by his enemies but by his own actions, his own words, and most devastatingly, his own son's choices.

What do you think? Is El-Rufai genuinely persecuted by every president he works with, or is this a deliberate strategy of political blackmail? Should Nigerians take his warnings about Tinubu seriously, or has he cried wolf too many times? And what does his son Bello's allegiance to Tinubu tell us about El-Rufai's credibility? Drop your thoughts in the comments section!