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2 months ago

Naija Politics Weekly: Obasanjo vs Osoba, Atiku Fires Back, Babachir's Double Game, and Obi Tells Tinubu to Go Home

There are weeks where Naija politics produces the kind of drama that reminds you why you started paying attention in the first place.

No judicial pronunciations. No party congresses. No INEC portal battles. Just old men with long memories, presidential candidates with sharp tongues, and a former SGF who praised and buried the same man in the same interview without blinking.

This was that week.

Five stories. Four very different men. One country that cannot stop talking about itself.

Let us go through all of it.

First: Two Egba Men Opened Their Notebooks and It Got Ugly Fast

It started on July 20 when former Ogun State governor Aremo Olusegun Osoba published a piece in The Legal Observer entitled "How Obasanjo Deceived Us in 2003." Twenty-three years. Osoba waited twenty-three years to write it. Then he did.

Osoba alleged that before the 2003 elections, Obasanjo persuaded the Afenifere leadership and the six Alliance for Democracy governors to support his re-election on the back of promises, including a commitment that those governors would face no federal interference in their states. He said those promises were abandoned the moment Obasanjo secured a second term. The AD governors lost their states. The deals evaporated. The southwest was delivered to PDP through federal machinery. Osoba said they were deceived.

Obasanjo spent three days composing his response. On July 23 he released a letter entitled "Reply to Your Inaccurate Posture: 'How Obasanjo Deceived Us in 2003.'"

He described Osoba's account as "farfetched" and riddled with inaccuracies, omissions and misconceptions. He said: "I take strong and serious objection to your calling me a deceiver because I deceived nobody. I always presented my case and all issues as I had them and as I understood them, no matter whose ox is gored."

He argued that several key political discussions happened above Osoba's head and that Osoba lacked full knowledge of the negotiations that shaped the 2003 outcome. He said the AD governors' losses were genuine election results, not manufactured.

But buried inside that letter, he dropped something else entirely.

He claimed that during his tenure, Atiku Abubakar gave the late former House Speaker Ghali Umar Na'Abba five million naira to initiate impeachment proceedings against him. The allegation landed in a letter about 2003 Yoruba politics and immediately became the bigger story.

Two Egba sons. One old dispute. One accusation against a man who is already running for president.

And the full picture gets stranger when you note what This Day reported: that the renewed hostility between the two may be connected to the failure of Obasanjo's daughter, former Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, to secure the APC gubernatorial ticket in Ogun State.

Kinship. Family ambition. Twenty-three-year-old grievances. 2027 presidential calculations.

This is Naija politics. Nothing is ever just about what it says it is about.

Second: Atiku Said "Man Up" and Meant Every Syllable

Atiku's response arrived on Friday July 25 and it did not bother with diplomatic packaging.

Through Phrank Shaibu, he said: "Coming at a time when the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general election is taking shape, the obvious objective is to besmirch my person and reputation and confer an undeserved political advantage on the former President's kinsman."

Kinsman. Not preferred candidate. Not favourite. Kinsman.

He then challenged Obasanjo directly: "If former President Obasanjo has chosen to take a political position ahead of 2027, he should simply declare it and allow Nigerians to judge it on its merits, rather than attempting to influence public opinion through allegations that can no longer be tested because the principal witness is no longer alive."

If Obasanjo wants to support Tinubu, go ahead and say it. Stop hiding behind dead men.

Na'Abba died after a prolonged illness and Atiku's strongest point in his entire response is a single question: if this bribery happened, why did you wait until Na'Abba was dead to say it? The man who was given the money, the man who could confirm or deny the claim, is gone. And only now does the allegation surface.

He asked: "Why wait until the only man who could confirm or refute the claim has departed this world?"

That question has no satisfying answer. And Obasanjo has not provided one.

The Yoruba Ronu Leadership Forum put an even sharper frame on the week's events, alleging that Obasanjo's comments were not an attack on Atiku but a calculated move against the broader opposition coalition. They alleged: "By this letter, Obasanjo has only confirmed speculations that he is working for his kinsman, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to actualise his second-term ambition."

Whether that is accurate or not, the political effect of Obasanjo's letter is observable and real. It put Atiku on the defensive in the same week he was supposed to be consolidating his INEC recognition and building his general election coalition.

Whether that timing is coincidental or choreographed is a question only Obasanjo can answer. And he will not.

Third: Babachir Lawal Did That Thing He Always Does

Babachir Lawal released an interview on Symfoni TV on Saturday July 25. And in the space of one sitting, he managed to praise Tinubu and dismantle him simultaneously.

He revealed that before the 2022 APC presidential primary, Tinubu was so worried about former President Buhari's position on his candidacy that he became depressed. Lawal said he personally intervened to negotiate Buhari's neutrality, essentially helping clear the path that led to Tinubu's emergence as APC candidate and eventual president.

So Babachir, who left the APC, joined the ADC, called Atiku a Fulani religious warlord, and said Tinubu would be better than Atiku, is now also saying he helped make Tinubu president by negotiating Buhari's neutrality.

He then proceeded to criticise the same man he helped install.

He said: "The people running the government don't seem to be people who love the country. They are people who love themselves. Everybody is bitter that life is tough. Suddenly, I don't know what has happened; he has lost his soul."

He lost his soul. Said by the man who said Tinubu would be better than Atiku. Said by the man who helped ensure Buhari did not oppose Tinubu's APC primary bid.

This is Babachir Lawal's gift to Naija politics. A man so unfiltered that every interview produces at least one sentence that contradicts a sentence from his previous interview. He praises you. He buries you. He praises you again. In the same breath.

The Lagos governor who was a good man is now the president who has lost his soul.

And yet Babachir is neither in APC nor in any credible opposition coalition that could benefit from that assessment. He is simply on television, being himself, which is the most characteristically Babachir thing he could possibly do.

Fourth and Final: Obi Looked Into the Camera and Said "Go Home"

Yesterday morning, Peter Obi sat across from Seun Okinbaloye on Channels Television's Sunday Politics and delivered his most direct personal attack on Tinubu to date.

Not statistics. Not World Bank figures, though he used those too. Not policy critique. Personal.

"The Bola Tinubu that was governor is not the one that is president today. He's tired. He should be allowed to retire in peace, and then go home."

Go home. Not resign as a constitutional matter. Not step aside in the national interest. Go home. Retire. Rest.

He added: "As it is right now, Bola Tinubu is leading us nowhere. We will turn it so he can see it. That's why maybe I'm calling for his retirement. The man should just step aside. Yes, he doesn't have the capacity to do the job."

He doesn't have the capacity. That sentence is doing something specific and deliberate. It is not attacking Tinubu's policies. It is not criticising his decisions. It is questioning his basic fitness for the job. His energy. His alertness. His sharpness.

Obi backed the personal critique with numbers. He cited the World Bank's latest report that 79 percent of Nigerians face poverty, saying: "In a country of 230 million people, that's over 180 million. That should be the issue we should be discussing."

180 million people facing poverty. Not a partisan estimate. A World Bank figure. In the country that just held a party primary where 10.9 million members voted for their president.

The contrast between that party primary show of strength and the World Bank's poverty projection is the entire Obi campaign in two data points. Tinubu has 10.9 million party votes and 180 million people heading toward poverty simultaneously. That combination is what Obi is betting will mobilise enough Nigerians on January 16 to overcome the structural advantages of 31 governors.

Whether he is right depends on whether anger at poverty translates into polling unit presence. Which is the question his campaign has been unable to fully answer since NDC was formed.

But the retirement line will travel. It is the most quotable thing any opposition candidate has said about Tinubu since this campaign began. And in Naija politics, the line that travels furthest is usually the one that sticks in voters' heads closest to election day.

The Week In One Paragraph

Two Egba elders fought a 23-year-old battle in public letters while the 2027 presidential campaign provided the real motive. Atiku told Obasanjo to stop hiding behind dead men and just say he is supporting his kinsman. Babachir Lawal told the world he helped make Tinubu president and also that Tinubu has lost his soul, in the same interview, without apparent discomfort. And Peter Obi looked at the man who won 10.9 million party votes and told him to pack up, retire in peace, and go home.

In Naija politics, no week summarises the chaos, the ambition, the personal history, and the political calculation of the Fourth Republic better than this one.

January 16, 2027 is 173 days away.

And none of these men are done talking.

What do you think? Did Atiku's "support your kinsman" line land or overshoot? Is Obi's retirement call the sharpest political attack of this campaign season so far? And what exactly is Babachir Lawal's political game when he praises and buries the same man in the same interview? Drop your thoughts in the comments. Naija politics just gave us its most entertaining week of 2026 and the real election hasn't even started yet.

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