Inflation is projected to moderate further in the near term, supported by sustained exchange rate stability and improved food supplies from the ongoing harvest season, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit of Access Bank Plc.

Headline inflation is expected to ease to 16.84% year-over-year in October 2025, from 18.02% in September, representing a 1.18 percentage point decline. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 2.1 points to 129.8 points in October 2025 from the previous month.

The methodology used by the report entails the application of an autoregressive model using lags of the composite consumer price index (CPI) and a survey-based inflation expectation within the same product definitions adopted by the NBS.